India Off To A Cautious Start in 2025 – Asia Law Portal

India Off To A Cautious Start in 2025 – Asia Law Portal
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The first month of 2024 was a continuation of the effects of the previous month and year. The economic growth forecasts continued to be lowered by global financial institutions for the immediate months and year ahead. There are several factors which have been highlighted which are pulling down the growth rate in the near future. The silver lining is that based on evaluation of factors and favourable conditions during this time, there could be higher economic growth in the subsequent year. The performance of the economy depends on several factors and successful implementation of robust long term beneficial policies. Hopefully, we will see the benefits in the coming months. The data protection framework received a major boost with release of the draft the Digital Personal Data Protection Rules, 2025 to facilitate the implementation of the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023.

World Bank – The World Bank recently released its Global Economic Prospects, January 2025 report. As per the report, in India, growth is expected to decelerate to 6.5 percent in fiscal year (FY) 2024/25 (April 2024 to March 2025) from 8.2 percent in FY2023/24, reflecting a slowdown in investment and weak manufacturing growth. This forecast is lower than the World Bank’s forecast of 6.5% in its India Development Update of September 2024, which was covered by Asia Law Portal here. The 2025 report mentioned that services activity has been steady, while growth in the agricultural sector has recovered. Private consumption growth has remained resilient, primarily driven by improved rural incomes accompanied by a recovery of agricultural output. In contrast, higher inflation and slower credit growth have curbed consumption in urban areas. The 2025 report also mentioned that India is projected to maintain the fastest growth rate among the world’s largest economies, at 6.7 percent in both FY2025/26 and FY2026/27. The services sector is expected to enjoy sustained expansion, and manufacturing activity is anticipated to strengthen, supported by government initiatives to enhance logistics infrastructure and improve the business environment through tax reforms. Private consumption growth is expected to be boosted by a strengthening labor market, expanding credit, and declining inflation. However, government consumption growth is likely to remain contained. Investment growth overall is expected to be steady, with rising private investment, supported by healthy corporate balance sheets and easing financing conditions. In India, fiscal deficits are expected to continue shrinking, largely on account of growing tax revenues.

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International Monetary Fund – The International Monetary Fund recently released its World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain. The report states that growth in India slowed more than expected, led by a sharper-than-expected deceleration in industrial activity. It mentioned that in India, growth is projected to be solid at 6.5 percent in 2025 and 2026, as projected in October 2024 (reported by Asia Law Portal here) and in line with potential.

UN Report – The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs recently published its World Economic Situation and Prospects 2025 report. The report mentions that the Indian economy is forecast to expand by 6.6 per cent in 2025, primarily supported by solid private consumption and investment growth. Additionally, capital expenditure on infrastructure development is expected to have strong multiplier effects on growth in the coming years. Strong export growth in services and certain goods categories, particularly pharmaceuticals and electronics, will bolster economic activity. On the supply side, expansion in the manufacturing and services sectors will keep driving the economy throughout the forecast period. Meanwhile, favourable monsoon rains in 2024 have improved the summer-sowing areas for all major crops, boosting agricultural output expectations for 2025.

Moody’s ReportRatings Agency Moody’s recently Monday lowered India’s economic growth forecast to 7% for the fiscal year ending March 2025, down from 8.2% recorded in the previous fiscal year. This revision comes amidst a broader slowdown in global and domestic economic trends. India’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity increased by 11% year-on-year to $10,233 in FY 2023, as per the report.

Data Protection Framework Update – The Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) has drafted the Digital Personal Data Protection Rules, 2025 to facilitate the implementation of the Digital Personal Data Protection Act, 2023 (DPDP Act), which was passed by the Parliament and received President’s assent in August 2023 (reported by Asia Law Portal here). It aims to strengthen the legal framework for the protection of digital personal data by providing necessary details and an actionable framework. The Explanatory Notes to the draft rules have also been published by MeitY here. MeitY has invited feedback/comments from its stakeholders on the draft Rules and the same can be submitted by February 18, 2025 on MyGov portal. This is a very welcome step in developing the data protection framework in India.

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